The Top 10 Signs Your Social Media “Expert” Isn’t

  1. They refer you to their profile on Friendster.  Where it lists as qualifications:  “Twitter is hot.  I’m a twerp.  Coincidence?  I think not.”
  2. Their Twitter profile:  Following 12,782, Followers 6, Tweets 2
  3. Their Facebook vanity profile:  http://www.facebook.com/HowDoYouUseThisAnyhow?
  4. “LinkedIn is, like, for people with jobs.”
  5. They’re under 26.  (Revenge for http://www.valleyprblog.com/social-media/a-rant-why-older-generations-shouldnt-blog/)
  6. They’re over 50.  (Other than me, of course.)
  7. Their resume’ includes any of these campaigns.  Worse, their resume’ includes all of these campaigns:  http://blog.thoughtpick.com/2009/06/10-social-media-campaigns-that-failed-avoid-their-mistakes.html
  8. They utter the phrase “but you have to be a part of the conversation” as the answer to every question.   In fact, be wary if they use that as the answer to any question.
  9. “Metrics, shmetrics.  We don’t need no stinking measurement.”
  10. They’re unfamiliar with YouTube but they’ve Dugg YouPorn.  Multiple times.  Per hour.

Google’s OS Announcement: Nailed It!!!

It’s nice as an analyst when you make a significant call well ahead of the market that turns out to be spot-on.  I had one of those with my report in February of 2008 entitled “Twitter:  The Most Important Platform You’ve Never Heard Of.”  As you might imagine, a year and a half ago the report generated some amount of scorn, even internally.  Looks pretty good now, eh?  I took great joy when the CEO of my former company actually signed up for his own Twitter account.

Well, nailed another one.  🙂  Google announced, via blog post, the Chrome operating system yesterday.  In a research note dated September 6, 2008, at the introduction of the Chrome browser, here’s the beginning of what I had to say.  (AMR clients can read the entire research note here.)

“Google introduced a “product” named Chrome this week.  It is wrong to think of Chrome as a browser.  It is really Google’s omni-client strategy, appearing here as a desktop rich internet application platform (RIAP), to complement Android, Google’s mobile version of the platform.  This is a disruptive maneuver, presaging a serious Google effort to control more of the desktop environment and to strengthen and extend its position in the mobile and online/cloud environment.  Enterprise ISVs and IT organizations have an intriguing platform to evaluate.  In the short-term, however, shortcomings in the browser itself will limit Chrome’s impact.

 There are really three ways to look at Google Chrome, in increasing order of interest:

  1. As a browser.
  2. As a platform for Google Apps.
  3. As Google’s omni-client platform strategy and a replacement for the Windows environment for desktop and mobile applications.”

Now, after the self-congratulatory blather, a few thoughts:

  • The market is ready for a fundamental rethink of the notion of an operating system, designed around web-enablement.
  • I’m not a big fan of “light” operating systems.  There are reasons why the client operating system should be a rich environment for application developers and users.  That said, designing it from the ground up to be web-aware is the right design criterion.
  • Microsoft’s Windows 7 is the latest, and last, iteration of the client-centric operating system.  You can expect Microsoft to talk a lot about Azure in response to this.  How much more than talk they do is still an open question.  Their near-term revenue opportunity is Windows 7 and thus their considerable focus and marketing effort will be on Windows 7.  This gives Google considerable opportunity to demonstrate thought leadership and to deposition Microsoft’s cloud efforts.

The cloud era has officially begun.

The Twitter Generation: Coping with Information Overload

People look at Twitter, Facebook and other social media and often observe “oh great, just what I need.  More distractions.”  Perhaps now more than ever, my learnings of over 20 years as an analyst are broadly useful.  As an analyst, I’ve been trained to look at the world through the lens of input, process and output.  You have to allocate your time among those three and also make sure that each is managed, typically in different fashions.

Input

In the good old days of “information is power,” we had a finite number of inputs, often giving us an incomplete picture of the situation.  Today, we still may have holes in the input but the bigger issue now is information overload, too much input.  Still, we must do two things.  First, make sure that among that choices of inputs that we have that we choose a balanced set of inputs to give the broadest possible picture.  Too many people on Twitter, for instance, follow people “just like them,” giving an echo chamber kind of effect.  Their thinking gets ratified because the only inputs they choose to select are those that confirm their position.  Bad situation in which to find yourself.  At the same time, it’s all too easy to conclude that because of the volume of inputs you’re receiving that you somehow must be seeing everything you need to see.  False.  It’s every bit as critical in this “too much information” world to identify the underlaps in your information flow as if you were in a “too little information” world.  So many post-disaster analyses demonstrate that the information to realize we were making a mistake existed, just that it hadn’t crossed the relevant person’s radar screen.  The old saying still applies:  “if you don’t know what you don’t know, you don’t know enough.”

Process

In the “good old days,” we’d actually spend time thinking about or debating things.  In today’s world, process consists of clicking “like” on Facebook or retweeting on Twitter.  Perhaps with the volume of data today, it’s easier to identify trends but then again, extrapolating straight line conditions was never a terribly valuable skill to possess.  In a data-rich world, every bit as much as in a data-poor one, identifying the non-intuitive conclusions is the real value contribution.  I suppose there’s a place in the world for the Scobles and Kawasakis – the broadcast media of social networks – but the real value I’ve found always comes from those who apply selection, judgment and insight to the data, not merely rebroadcast it.  This is one of the values of the Internet OldTimers Foundation network to me; my OT time is usually thought-provoking and insight-focused.  There is very little of the “see this, pass it on” and much more of the “so what does this really mean?”  And perhaps the biggest insight I’ve gathered over the years from focusing on process is to look for proof you’re wrong.  If you look for proof you’re right, you’ll almost always find it…even when everyone else long ago concluded you were wrong.  If on the other hand, you give your search for your errors a true and honest effort, only in the absence of information negating your position might you begin to feel comfortable in your correctness…subject of course to a full range of inputs as outlined above.  This search for wrongness makes me sometimes a difficult person to work (or live) with – I’m the one who, when everyone else is rushing to agree, stops to see what we’re missing.  On the other hand, that makes me a great consultant; I’ll see what those of you too close to the matter (whose inputs are biased in one direction) might miss.

Output

At the end of the day, what you do with your inputs and processes is what really matters.  Mental masturbation is a wonderful game in which to participate but if your inputs and processes don’t lead to substantive behavioral changes, it wasn’t necessarily time well spent.  Don’t spend a lot of time in maintenance of the status quo.  Instead, look for those outputs that call for a behavioral change.  That’s where you get the real return on your investments of time above.

It’s real easy to lose track and get caught up in one of the above steps – the information junkie, the debater or the presenter.  I find great personal value in being aware of these processes and biases and actively managing them.